December 4th, 2008

The Dangers of Genetic Optimization

The guys at Weebly just had a round of press for their latest product, SnapAds, an ad optimization platform that uses genetic algorithms. The technology is very cool, so check it out.

John Resig then posted a link to Genetify, the previous incarnation of this technology, which uses genetic algorithms to optimize your website at large by “evolving” your stylesheets.

The Black Box of Genetic Algorithms

SnapAds is a great application of this technology because the guiding metric function is obvious: total ad revenue. Since we’ve talked about A/B testing, you might wonder why not do this automatically for your website at large and optimize other user behavior?

The answer is what we call “black box testing.” You know the results — maybe users are 50% more likely to click a certain link — but you don’t understand why.

This is a pitfall of normal A/B and multivariate testing, too. You put up an experiment, measure the outcomes, and pick the one that performs the best according to the metrics that matter. Bingo bango.

And hey, if you automate the optimization step with something like genetic algorithms, you don’t even need to do this. The machine makes the decision for you!

Analysis Matters

The problem with black box testing — when you understand the outcome but not the underlying cause — is that there’s no learning. Analysis matters. Customer insight matters.

If you’re only doing black box testing you don’t really understand your customers. You’re just blindly following the dictates of whatever algorithm you’ve set up.

Your customers might be buying more now, but can you apply that knowledge to your next product?

  • Jamaal
    Or can you apply it properly to this one? The world isn't linear, and combinations still matter.
  • gregdingle
    Hi Jesse, the black box aspect of genetic algorithms can definitely be a drawback. I've just launched genetify as an open-source project.

    http://github.com/gregdingle/genetify/wikis/home

    I'm hoping people will incorporate different testing and optimization algorithms into it -- ANOVA, bayesian, GA -- so you can pick one to suit your purpose.
  • Greg,

    Very cool. I'll keep an eye out.

    I'd love to meet up some time. You're in SF, right? Are you ever down in the peninsula?
  • Someone
    "There's no learning"? From a business point of view, there is. You found a way to increase revenues with little effort. That trick is worth remembering.
  • My point was that you didn't learn anything about your customers that can be applied in a different tactical situation. You don't know anything about their motivations, their interests, or their state of mind.

    So, although you get one result (increased revenue) you also lose something of value (verifiable knowledge about your customers). There's a tradeoff there, and perhaps you're willing to make it.
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